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T1  - The predictive power of risk preference measures for farming decisions†
AU  - Hellerstein, Daniel
AU  - Higgins, Nathaniel
AU  - Horowitz, John
Y1  - 2013/12/01
N1  - 10.1093/erae/jbs043
JO  - European Review of Agricultural Economics
SP  - 807
EP  - 833
VL  - 40
IS  - 5
N2  - This paper uses a lottery-choice mechanism to measure farmer preferences over money-denominated risks. We look at the ability of these choice data to predict farming decisions for an in-person sample of 68 farmers. A coarse version of our risk preference measure has substantial explanatory power but in an unexpected direction: a farmer who was more risk averse under our measure was less likely to have diversified his operation and less likely to have a crop insurance contract. A fine version of our risk preference measure has essentially no explanatory power. We conclude that despite their widespread use in the lab, lottery-choice measures of risk preferences are unproven for predicting real world farming behaviour.
SN  - 0165-1587
M3  - doi: 10.1093/erae/jbs043
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbs043

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